Last night I was reading my last batch of news before going to sleep when I see a small article on BBC.com saying the state television station of North Korea has carried a message the US:
Any attempt to interfere with North Korean ships would be seen as an act of war and would require military action.
My question is; Who is North Korea kidding? The UNSC just UNANIMOUSLY approved new sanctions against the pariah state. China and Russia, typically defenders of North Korea in the UN, surprisingly voiced no opposition to the new sanctions. If North Korea launched an attack against the South, or even US property abroad, do they really think they would survive? The South and Japan would most definitely take part in this military operation. What makes them think they would not be the next Afghanistan or Iraq?
Even if they did threaten a nuclear attack, most of the world is not completely sure they would be able to effectively launch the weapon.
Maybe after the transition of power between Kim Jong-il and his son this situation will settle down.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
More Thoughts On North Korea's Nuclear Tests
Geoffrey Forden over at armscontrolwonk.com raises an interesting question about North Korea's nuclear tests. The question is, why did North Korea test both weapons underground?
Atmospheric testing allows scientists to photograph the explosion and the sun in the same frame in order to accurately determine the calibration of the bomb. All of China's nuclear tests have been atmospheric tests.
Could they really be trying to hide the tests from the international community? That doesn't seem like Kim Jong-il's style; he mocks the international community on a regular basis and probably would love to show off a shiny new nuclear weapon to the world. Even if he was trying to hide it, do you think the world would not have noticed the signature of a nuclear event? The ground shaking, gasses leaked, especially in the same area as the last test.
But maybe Kim Jong-il is caving to international norms of testing underground now.
Atmospheric testing allows scientists to photograph the explosion and the sun in the same frame in order to accurately determine the calibration of the bomb. All of China's nuclear tests have been atmospheric tests.
Could they really be trying to hide the tests from the international community? That doesn't seem like Kim Jong-il's style; he mocks the international community on a regular basis and probably would love to show off a shiny new nuclear weapon to the world. Even if he was trying to hide it, do you think the world would not have noticed the signature of a nuclear event? The ground shaking, gasses leaked, especially in the same area as the last test.
But maybe Kim Jong-il is caving to international norms of testing underground now.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Early Synopsis
Early Synopsis of The Road to Hell by Michael Maren:
So far Maren has mainly been telling a story of Chris Cassidy, who is an aid worker in Somalia (presumably before Maren arrives). The story illustrates the failures of US aid abroad. So many things get in the way of the aid helping those who are in need. The entire process is so politicized and so incredibly poorly put together, it is really remarkable more hasn't been said about these problems.
What most people do not realize is many of these "starving" countries have enough food to feed their citizens, in fact, in some cases they are exporting food. If the corrupt government exports food and starves people, aid agencies roll in with their bags of food and Land Rovers (Maren makes a point about how aid workers always drive Land Rovers. He mentions them almost ever other sentence; utilizing them as a means to show the inefficiencies and corruption in aid agencies). The aid workers bring contracts to the government who allows big mansions and beach clubs to be made for the aid workers while they skim some money off the top, making themselves rich. So as long as we come there and give them contracts, we fuel starvation; it is a self perpetuating system. Along with that, as soon as we give food, we make people reliant on our food, never allowing them to find a way to become self sustainable. It's a terribly cruel system.
More to come in a few days.
So far Maren has mainly been telling a story of Chris Cassidy, who is an aid worker in Somalia (presumably before Maren arrives). The story illustrates the failures of US aid abroad. So many things get in the way of the aid helping those who are in need. The entire process is so politicized and so incredibly poorly put together, it is really remarkable more hasn't been said about these problems.
What most people do not realize is many of these "starving" countries have enough food to feed their citizens, in fact, in some cases they are exporting food. If the corrupt government exports food and starves people, aid agencies roll in with their bags of food and Land Rovers (Maren makes a point about how aid workers always drive Land Rovers. He mentions them almost ever other sentence; utilizing them as a means to show the inefficiencies and corruption in aid agencies). The aid workers bring contracts to the government who allows big mansions and beach clubs to be made for the aid workers while they skim some money off the top, making themselves rich. So as long as we come there and give them contracts, we fuel starvation; it is a self perpetuating system. Along with that, as soon as we give food, we make people reliant on our food, never allowing them to find a way to become self sustainable. It's a terribly cruel system.
More to come in a few days.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
New Paper Ideas
Thinking about beginning a new paper but I can't decide on a topic, here are the few I am considering:
1. Paper on the future of a world with more nuclear weapons. In the past 70 years, 9 states have been able to attain nuclear weapons, what does the future hold? I will contend we are entering the age where nuclear weapons proliferation is an inevitability. How do we deal with this problem?
2. "Minorities of Influence." I came up with this phrase while writing a paper on Druze in Israel. The paper would examine a couple minorities who either, a) have almost more influence than the majority or b) those minorities that could have tremendous influence, but have not seized the opportunity yet.
3. A further exploration of the Druze culture and religion. Could involve relationships between Druze in Arab, Syria/Lebanon and Jewish Israel. Also could involve diasporic Druze relationships between those in the Middle East and those in the US/Latin America.
If anyone randomly finds this blog, let me know what you think!
1. Paper on the future of a world with more nuclear weapons. In the past 70 years, 9 states have been able to attain nuclear weapons, what does the future hold? I will contend we are entering the age where nuclear weapons proliferation is an inevitability. How do we deal with this problem?
2. "Minorities of Influence." I came up with this phrase while writing a paper on Druze in Israel. The paper would examine a couple minorities who either, a) have almost more influence than the majority or b) those minorities that could have tremendous influence, but have not seized the opportunity yet.
3. A further exploration of the Druze culture and religion. Could involve relationships between Druze in Arab, Syria/Lebanon and Jewish Israel. Also could involve diasporic Druze relationships between those in the Middle East and those in the US/Latin America.
If anyone randomly finds this blog, let me know what you think!
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The Road to Hell
Reading a new book loaned to me by a friend of mine. It's called The Road to Hell by Michael Maren. It's about US foreign aid failures. I looked forward to writing a synopsis of the book after I finish.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
The Nuclear Future
I think the world is just now starting to realize that nuclear weapons are an inevitable part of the world's future. North Korea has about 2-5 nuclear weapons, and Iran is vigilantly pursuing nukes much to the discontent of the Western World. It is time to realize, nuclear weapons are not going away. They are only going to spread over the next couple of decades. While I would love to be able to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists and crazed dictators throughout the world, it is simply not going to happen. North Korea is a recent failure of the international community in preventing nuclear proliferation. Many of my detractors will say the North Korean example is counteracted by the example of Libya giving up its nuclear program years ago. I contend that Libya's reversal of policy is the last of its type. It is far too easy to figure out how to make a nuclear weapon for countries with the scientific know-how and access to Plutonium or Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) (I've read enough books on nuclear weapons to be able to simply explain two ways to create a nuke without help).
I do not contend we should stop from trying to stem the spread of nuclear weapons, but instead we should also work on international safeguards beyond the toothless treaties to which all states are signatories (NPT). Instead we need to work on having all nuclear devices outfitted with Permissive Action Links (PALs). PALs simply are a mechanism which by which nukes are safeguarded from unintential activation or detonation. Along with PALs there needs to be a more concerted international effort to secure weapons grade Plutonium and HEU to ensure it does not fall into the hands of terrorists.
I do not contend we should stop from trying to stem the spread of nuclear weapons, but instead we should also work on international safeguards beyond the toothless treaties to which all states are signatories (NPT). Instead we need to work on having all nuclear devices outfitted with Permissive Action Links (PALs). PALs simply are a mechanism which by which nukes are safeguarded from unintential activation or detonation. Along with PALs there needs to be a more concerted international effort to secure weapons grade Plutonium and HEU to ensure it does not fall into the hands of terrorists.
North Korea names a successor...or not?
BBC reported this morning that North Korea has named a new leader, the youngest son of current leader, Kim Jong-Il. This news comes in the wake of the North's second nuclear test in three years. Along with this test they have also tested five missiles in the past two weeks. At the time of the nuclear test many analysts speculated that the nuclear test was to cover up a transfer of power. Those speculators have been proven correct, or so they think.
The news of a new leader of North Korea is not without its detractors. Andrei Lankov from the Australian National University is posted on BBC as saying this is just another rumor. The rumor of a new leader has been circulating since Kim Jong-Il suffered a stroke in August 2008. Lankov cites the waves of rumors that have circulated since the stroke. "We had rumours in September, October that it will be Chang Song-taek, Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, then briefly there were rumours about his second son, then stories about his third son,..."
The news of a new leader of North Korea is not without its detractors. Andrei Lankov from the Australian National University is posted on BBC as saying this is just another rumor. The rumor of a new leader has been circulating since Kim Jong-Il suffered a stroke in August 2008. Lankov cites the waves of rumors that have circulated since the stroke. "We had rumours in September, October that it will be Chang Song-taek, Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, then briefly there were rumours about his second son, then stories about his third son,..."
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