North Korea Threatens the US

Last night I was reading my last batch of news before going to sleep when I see a small article on BBC.com saying the state television station of North Korea has carried a message the US:

Any attempt to interfere with North Korean ships would be seen as an act of war and would require military action.

My question is; Who is North Korea kidding? The UNSC just UNANIMOUSLY approved new sanctions against the pariah state. China and Russia, typically defenders of North Korea in the UN, surprisingly voiced no opposition to the new sanctions. If North Korea launched an attack against the South, or even US property abroad, do they really think they would survive? The South and Japan would most definitely take part in this military operation. What makes them think they would not be the next Afghanistan or Iraq?

Even if they did threaten a nuclear attack, most of the world is not completely sure they would be able to effectively launch the weapon.

Maybe after the transition of power between Kim Jong-il and his son this situation will settle down.

North Korea names a successor...or not?

BBC reported this morning that North Korea has named a new leader, the youngest son of current leader, Kim Jong-Il. This news comes in the wake of the North's second nuclear test in three years. Along with this test they have also tested five missiles in the past two weeks. At the time of the nuclear test many analysts speculated that the nuclear test was to cover up a transfer of power. Those speculators have been proven correct, or so they think.


The news of a new leader of North Korea is not without its detractors. Andrei Lankov from the Australian National University is posted on BBC as saying this is just another rumor. The rumor of a new leader has been circulating since Kim Jong-Il suffered a stroke in August 2008. Lankov cites the waves of rumors that have circulated since the stroke. "We had rumours in September, October that it will be Chang Song-taek, Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, then briefly there were rumours about his second son, then stories about his third son,..."

North Korea -- What to do?

I refrained from posting about this yesterday when North Korea set off their second nuclear test in three years because of the lack of definitive information about the test. This nuclear test was carried out in the northern province of Kilju, the same location of the 2006 test. There is no official determination of the yield of the weapon tested, Russia has reported up to 40 Kilotons, other reports indicate as low as 4 Kilotons. The 2006 test was a low yield bomb of 1 kiloton (equivalent to 1,000 sticks of dynamite, considered relatively low for a nuclear weapon). Aidan Foster-Carter perceptively writes that North Korea is clearly not going to be the next Libya and give up their nuclear weapons program. Assuming that North Korea, under no condition, is going to give up their nuclear program, then we must find another way to negotiate with North Korea. The past six years of so-called Six Party Talks has yielded no results other than an empty promise of North Korea abandoning its nuclear program. With that promise now void, another strategy must be devised.
New negotiations with Pyongyong must take on a different tone now, one that encompasses much more than their youthful nuclear program. Most who follow North Korea in the news know about their starving population and the "secret" forced labor camps which are inhabited by those who dare speak against the government. With these conditions in mind, the US and other states must find a different way to negotiate with the DPRK.
We must realize that putting sanctions on North Korea again, will not do much, except further starve the citizens. There needs to be a way to integrate them into the global system in a meaningful way so that they will stop threatening those around them and they loosen the stranglehold on the economy and citizens.
We have to do a couple of things in my opinion:
1. Actually find a credible negotiator (preferably Kim Jong Il himself)
2. Ask exactly what they want; if it is a nuclear program, we need to draft an agreement which allows IAEA inspectors to all of the nuclear facilities, there need to be efficient safeguards (PALs, etc), there needs to be an agreement to prevent the distribution of nuclear material or dual-use technologies.
3. In return for being brought into the international community, there needs to be some sort of assurance that the citizens are allowed additional freedoms, especially easy access to food.

Other things are also needed, but this is just a start. I do not think many people really understand what Kim Jong Il really wants out of this program. We need to understand his thinking before we can effectively negotiate. If we can reach a mutual agreement it is easier to assuage the tensions on the Korean Peninsula.