Geopolitics -- France

In keeping with my field of study for next year (“Geopolitics and Grand Strategy”) I have decided to compose a couple of articles about the geopolitical importance of multiple countries.

France will be the target of today’s post.

Looking at a map of Europe, France holds a very powerful position. It borders seven countries and two bodies of water. Andorra, Spain, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Monaco and Italy all border France. The English Channel separates France from the only other European nuclear power, the United Kingdom. The Mediterranean Sea separates France from the north coast of Africa and the Western-most coast of the Middle East.

France has neared superpower status on multiple occasions, most notably the reign of Napoleon being the closest. Instead of growing into its potential, France has been subject to English domination in the 18^th century and then subjected to Nazi rule in Germany. Now France holds an interesting position where they may hold the key to the ambitions of the US in Eurasia.

Generally speaking, in a vote that splits the UNSC East v. West the votes will be grouped with China and Russia on one side and France, UK, and the US on the other side. If you need proof of this, look at past votes over whether to impose sanctions on North Korea and Iran. It is hard to imagine the US without the UK by its side. The US/UK alliance is an impotent duo at best. The UK lost its geopolitical importance during the Second World War; since 1945 the UK has failed to be a geopolitical player. It may be a subject of their distance from West/East divide (which I would put probably in Eastern Europe descending on the Eastern border of the Ukraine and Turkey, both of which will be the subject of this series in the upcoming week) or their impotency on the world stage. The other duo is the “Eastern Alliance” (as I will call it) of Russia and China which will reliably protect their interests both in the Middle East and East Asia. This is where France’s situation becomes interesting.

For most who pay attention to international politics, France is often an unreliable, erratic actor. Sometimes they are staunch allies of the United States and other times they are the first to criticize the US. In a contested vote on the Security Council, France often holds the deciding vote. This makes the relationship between the US and France a delicate one. With the rise in potency of the European Union in the past decade France also has the ability to united Europe to reassert itself as the world’s superpower (I say ‘reassert’ referring to the time when Europe was the head of exploration and colonialism). France has the unique ability to do this because of their geographic location, their nuclear weapons stockpile (third largest in the world), and their ability to lead. When consulting my peers about the question of leadership in Europe many asserted it was Germany, not France, had the ability to lead. I think Germany has two problems. The first being the most obvious, they are not a part of the nuclear club. The second harkens back to World War II and Nazi rule. There is still a collective memory of the Holocaust which weighs heavy on any assertion of German leadership. Therefore Germany holds the excellent ability to fight for a united Europe without German leadership.

If Europe united with France leading the way into 2010 and beyond, the US may have to rethink its strategy in Europe. The hundreds of thousands of US troops stationed in Europe would be forced to come home, and the US would lose influence on the world’s largest land mass and population center (Eurasia).

France is clearly the main player in European geopolitics; they hold the key to the entirety of Europe, both in and out of the UN. The alliance between the US and France one that is necessary of frequent nurturing. A hostile France could substantially limit the power of the United States in Eurasia.

Qatar's North Field

In 2006 Qatar quietly announced the development of natural gas refining facilities in their North Field which is also part of the South Pars gas field which belongs to Iran (there is no geological separation; the split occurs at the Qatar - Iran maritime boundary). Here is a map of the area:
The North Field is expected to supply approximately 14% of the world's gas supply; South Pars is expected to contain 10%. Adding to the already LOADED area; this area is non-associated natural gas which means it contains little crude oil and requires less processing.

Iran and Qatar currently have a good relationship despite Qatar's willingness to host US troops. Qatar and Iran cooperate on OPEC, the Non-Aligned Movement, and Organization of the Islamic Conference. Together they hold 24% of the world's natural gas supply which may hold the key to relieving the world's reliance on oil.

My Response to Mr. Richard Butler

Today's post will be cut short a little, I intended on composing a much more lengthy post on cars and oil, but that will be saved for another day. I will be responding to Mr. Butler's view of nuclear weapons.

If you did not get a chance to watch his interview, I still would recommend you at least watch the first ten minutes. The claims which Butler makes about nuclear weapons (obsolete, unnecessary, outdated; among other claims) I find far too idealistic. I prefer a bit more realist point of view.

"Speak soft but carry a big stick" -- Teddy Roosevelt

Nuclear weapons are far from a thing of the past; rather, they are the weapon of the future. It is sad, both in my view and in Mr. Butler's view that this is true; but it is...

Nuclear weapons are not going away anytime soon. Currently there are nine nuclear weapon states:

1. United States
2. Russia
3. China
4. United Kingdom
5. North Korea
6. Israel
7. Pakistan
8. India
9. France

President Barack Obama and President of the Russian Federation, Dmitri Medvedev just held talks on the status of nuclear weapons and decided on a goal of reducing the number of deployed nuclear weapons. This goal hardly accomplished anything as I noted a few days ago.

As long as there are countries pushing for a military edge the world, there will be nuclear weapons. That is the truth, I invite anyone who disagrees to email me and we can continue that discussion. Last time I checked, India and Pakistan still have disagreements over Kashmir; Iran is still threatening to wipe Israel off the map (and vis versa); and North Korea is still threatening war against South Korea and the US....Nuclear weapons are not going away.

The simple fact is that nuclear weapons give us the "Big Stick" that Teddy Roosevelt spoke about many decades ago. Until the world realizes how bad a nuclear attack would be, there will be no elimination of nuclear weapons.

The need for them comes from the "macho" posturing that dominates international politics. There is no way to threaten a state that has a nuclear weapons when you have an army and some rifles. The fact is strategic competition on the world stage is composed of "I have more nukes than you." We need to focus our efforst not on eliminating nuclear weapons, but on having more control.

Here is a link to a post I wrote about a month ago about nuclear weapon safety. Enjoy.

How Twitter Saved Iran

As most of you know, Iran has come uncorked in the past few weeks since the presidential election. Protests have marred the top international headlines everyday in protest of President Ahmadinejad's win. Even under pressure from the government to silence the protests which have continued to this day (check BBC). But there was one source of information that Iran could not silence: Twitter.

I will be the first to admit, I loathe those who update their Twitter constantly. I just cannot stand to think about sitting around telling the world what I am doing every second of every day. Life has a tendency to make me wrong lately, and this time Twitter and Iran proved me wrong. Even when the government struck back and arrested hundreds and silenced crowds; the protesters went to Twitter, and it became a live news feed from Iran. The developers of Twitter had routine maintenance scheduled for the middle of day in Iran, but changed it due to the importance of what was occurring.

Just scanning "Iran election" on the Twitter search results, I have 18 new "Tweets" in about 3 minutes, and one (without refreshing to get the new results) reads ""Iran: Release All Those Detained for Peacefully Opposing the Election Results." Please sign this petition and retweet. http://bit.ly/17iqS7"

As you can see even though the government will continue to try and crush protests, the movement will live on through Twitter.

The Nuclear Future

I think the world is just now starting to realize that nuclear weapons are an inevitable part of the world's future. North Korea has about 2-5 nuclear weapons, and Iran is vigilantly pursuing nukes much to the discontent of the Western World. It is time to realize, nuclear weapons are not going away. They are only going to spread over the next couple of decades. While I would love to be able to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists and crazed dictators throughout the world, it is simply not going to happen. North Korea is a recent failure of the international community in preventing nuclear proliferation. Many of my detractors will say the North Korean example is counteracted by the example of Libya giving up its nuclear program years ago. I contend that Libya's reversal of policy is the last of its type. It is far too easy to figure out how to make a nuclear weapon for countries with the scientific know-how and access to Plutonium or Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) (I've read enough books on nuclear weapons to be able to simply explain two ways to create a nuke without help).

I do not contend we should stop from trying to stem the spread of nuclear weapons, but instead we should also work on international safeguards beyond the toothless treaties to which all states are signatories (NPT). Instead we need to work on having all nuclear devices outfitted with Permissive Action Links (PALs). PALs simply are a mechanism which by which nukes are safeguarded from unintential activation or detonation. Along with PALs there needs to be a more concerted international effort to secure weapons grade Plutonium and HEU to ensure it does not fall into the hands of terrorists.

Multiple Terrorist Attacks in the Middle East

After the attacks in Lahore, Pakistan yesterday, two bombs have exploded a city marketplace. Shortly after the marketplace attacks, a suicide bomber drove a car loaded with explosives into a military checkpoint. According to a Taliban deputy, the Lahore attacks were in response to the military's ongoing operations in the Northern province of Swat to suppress the Taliban uprising. After the Lahore attacks, the Taliban warned of further violence.

In South-East Iran a blast has crippled a mosque in the city of Zahedan. A border city with Pakistan, Zahedan is often the site of political unrest and drug violence. The attack could not come at a more sensitive time; the first round of the presidential election is a little over two weeks away.